Tim Tszyu vs Errol Spence Jr

Tim Tszyu vs Errol Spence Jr is not a normal comeback fight; it is a dangerous job for both men. Spence has not boxed since Terence Crawford took him apart in July 2023, and now he is coming back in Australia, up in weight, against a bloke who still carries spite even after a rough couple of years.

Spence is the better-schooled fighter in pure boxing terms. Southpaw, lovely jab when he is right, body punching that used to take the wind out of world-class welterweights. But that was then. He is 36, 28-1, and has been out nearly three years. Tszyu is 27-3, naturally bigger and more active, and he has had two wins since his defeat to Fundora. He is not as slick as Spence, but he is harder, heavier, and fighting at home.

The nuts and bolts for Tszyu are pressure and timing. He is at his best when he walks a man down behind that stiff jab, pins him near the ropes, then lets the right hand go through the middle. His weakness is that he can be too straight-backed and hittable when a sharp southpaw changes the angle. Fundora and Murtazaliev showed that when the rhythm goes wrong, Tszyu can unravel.

Spence’s advantage is craft. If the legs are still there, he can jab Tszyu’s head off, step outside the lead foot, and dig that left hand into the body. But that is a massive “if”. A long layoff, a move up in weight, and a hostile Australian crowd are surely not in his favour.

My prediction is Tszyu by stoppage in the championship rounds. Spence will look classy early, probably nick rounds with the jab, but once Tszyu starts touching him on the whiskers and leaning on him, the old engine light comes on. By the late rounds, I think the legs betray Spence before the heart does.